3.1 - Measuring Randomness

HandsOn Activities:

9. Lottery Game

Is the present always influenced by the past? Suppose you are flipping a coin and, by chance, flip three heads in a row. Does flipping three heads in a row affect the next flip-the fourth flip-or not? Is the fourth flip more likely to be another head? Or is the fourth flip less likely to be a head?

• Do you believe in "winning streaks,'' meaning that three heads in a row is more likely to lead to a head on the next flip? Why do you believe in winning streaks?

• Or do you expect your "luck to run out,'' meaning that three heads in a row is more likely to be followed by a tail on the next flip? Why do you believe that your luck can run out?

• Or do you expect equal chances of getting a head or a tail on the next flip, independent of what happened before? Why do you believe that the next flip is independent.